I’m back from Shanghai, back in San Francisco. I’m here to wind up my affairs in this country and move to China.

China, where I won’t be able to post on this weblog, although I can comment on it via email.

Shanghai actually looks like this–or it would, if there were ever a clear day…



I’ve been quite busy, but have found time to wander around the climate blogosphere. Nothing has changed, it seems. At least no hearts or minds. Despite more evidence that climate sensitivity may be low, despite more evidence that we will have a large impact on our climate nonetheless, skeptics are still skeptics and alarmists are still alarmists.

My comment for now is this: We are in the middle of the third pause in global warming in the last century. In the other two, temperatures actually declined. That hasn’t happened during this pause yet.

This pause could easily last another decade. The other two lasted 22 and 25 years respectively. If it goes on, the climate models will have to be reworked. The arguments may turn decisively in the skeptics’ favor.

But it won’t mean that global warming was a fiction or that it’s finished. We may (thankfully) abandon coarse fictions like 20 foot sea level rise or the planetary takeover by mosquitoes–whose first target will obviously be polar bears. We may (thankfully) see the back of poseurs like Michael Mann, Stephan Lewandowsky and Peter Gleick.

But it won’t mean that global warming was a fiction, or that it is finished. The developing world will continue to increase its use of fossil fuels and we will continue to belch CO2 and other gases into our only atmosphere.

When it returns I hope we’re ready. Not just with abatement technologies and clever plans for adaptation. I hope we’re ready with better arguments and more open minds.

We could start here.


11 responses to “Awake

  1. Wow. One of the better and more reasonable takes on climate issues.
    And double ‘wow’ for actually finding a good gig in China. It is not the easiest place to work and live, despite the hype. I would love to hear more about what you are doing over there. I am sorry that we have never been able to meet in person. My travel schedule to the Bay Area is put off until late this year at the earliest, it seems.
    If you are willing to keep this site open, I will- and I am sure others will- be happy to post some takes on the climate and blog war about climate.
    You have my e-mail address. Keep in touch.
    Best wishes,

  2. “We are in the middle of the third pause in global warming in the last century. In the other two, temperatures actually declined. That hasn’t happened during this pause yet.” I also noticed this. I was hoping that someone like Scaffetti would fit his time series to it and come up with another estimate of global warming that can be attributed to co2. I think that we are still in the 0.3-0.6 C/century range. But what an accelerated output of co2 would do now is anyones guess, the models are pretty much worthless.

  3. My suggestion for the future of the blog is to start threads on a variety of topics and when something comes up, we can comment on the appropriate thread.

  4. “Nothing has changed, it seems. At least no hearts or minds. ”
    It’s like climategate never happened.
    There has been no pause in warming.
    There have been no revelations that the gas and nuke industry are funding the warmers, The warmers still accuse the skeptics of fossil fuel ties and skeptics accuse the warmers of a left conspiracy.
    People still reference a poll that 97% agree on something, it’s not important what.

    The sad thing is that the climate science debate is no different than many other science debates.

  5. 40 years ago this month I started working in lower atmospheric physics with the intention of working on human impacts on climate. 24 years ago I started looking critically at CAGW and 21 years ago I became a skeptic. This was a big part of my life. Since Pielke quit blogging this is the only blog I visit regularly. The rest make me ill. I will probably stop following the debate. I haven’t changed many minds.

  6. OFF TOPIC INQUIRY: I know a young women who recently got a PhD in meteorology (boundary layer specialty) from UAH and really got screwed in academia because of her unpopular views. She since has gotten financial number crunching experience. She is out of work and needs something. Does anyone know anyone looking for that combination of skills? I worked with her 3 years ago and she is a pleasure.

  7. Marty,
    Your story reminds me of why I am becoming increasingly dubious of the way science is managed now- by way of huge government funding controlled by committees. The petty doctrinaire viciousness of academia is another.
    AGW is clearly a secularized religion, not a serious work of science. And we are all the poorer for it.

    I am not linking to this article because I believe a thing in it. I am linking to it because it is a perfect example of an article aimed at liberals designed to scare the hippies into subsidizing nuclear reactors.

  9. Tom,
    I read over at The Blackboard you are already returning. Best wishes for a great time in lovely China! Perhaps we can hear more before you go? Too bad we were not able to get together and raise a toast or two.

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