I’m back from Shanghai, back in San Francisco. I’m here to wind up my affairs in this country and move to China.
China, where I won’t be able to post on this weblog, although I can comment on it via email.
Shanghai actually looks like this–or it would, if there were ever a clear day…
I’ve been quite busy, but have found time to wander around the climate blogosphere. Nothing has changed, it seems. At least no hearts or minds. Despite more evidence that climate sensitivity may be low, despite more evidence that we will have a large impact on our climate nonetheless, skeptics are still skeptics and alarmists are still alarmists.
My comment for now is this: We are in the middle of the third pause in global warming in the last century. In the other two, temperatures actually declined. That hasn’t happened during this pause yet.
This pause could easily last another decade. The other two lasted 22 and 25 years respectively. If it goes on, the climate models will have to be reworked. The arguments may turn decisively in the skeptics’ favor.
But it won’t mean that global warming was a fiction or that it’s finished. We may (thankfully) abandon coarse fictions like 20 foot sea level rise or the planetary takeover by mosquitoes–whose first target will obviously be polar bears. We may (thankfully) see the back of poseurs like Michael Mann, Stephan Lewandowsky and Peter Gleick.
But it won’t mean that global warming was a fiction, or that it is finished. The developing world will continue to increase its use of fossil fuels and we will continue to belch CO2 and other gases into our only atmosphere.
When it returns I hope we’re ready. Not just with abatement technologies and clever plans for adaptation. I hope we’re ready with better arguments and more open minds.
We could start here.