The Tragedy of Anderegg, Prall et al PNAS 2010

Update:

I found what I thought was one of those open letters–a relative famous document called the Heidelberg Declaration of 1992. It was a fairly innocuous letter saying that the environment needed to be considered as a whole and 4,000 people signed it, including 73 Nobel Prize winners.

However, Anderegg, Prall et al used a different letter also published in 1992 that was signed by 47 skeptical climate scientists, 46 of whom they used in their denier database.

I regret the error.

I’ve written several  times  about the article published in 2010 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Titled “Expert Credibility in Climate Change” the article was written by William Anderegg, James Prall, Jacob Harold and the late Stephen Schneider.

shame

The key premise of the paper is set out plainly in its abstract: “Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.”

In my previous criticism of the paper I have focused on different issues–as I wrote shortly after the paper was published, “The paper is poorly done, as I’ve explained elsewhere. They used Google Scholar instead of an academic database. They searched only in English, despite the global nature of climate science. They got names wrong. They got job titles wrong. They got incorrect numbers of publications and citations.

“As I’ve mentioned, the highly respected Spencer Weart dismissed the paper as rubbish, saying it should not have been published.

“But the worst part of this is the violation of the rights of those they studied. Because Prall keeps lists of skeptical scientists on his weblog, obsessively trawling through online petitions and published lists of letters, and because those lists were used as part of the research, anyone now or in the future can have at their fingertips the names of those who now or in the past dared to disagree.”

In this post I want to write about how they chose the scientists they claimed have lower expertise and scientific prominence. The paper states, “We define UE researchers as those who have signed reputable statements strongly dissenting from the views of the IPCC. We compiled UE names comprehensively from the following 12 lists:

1992 statement from the Science and Environmental Policy
Project (46 names), 1995 Leipzig Declaration (80 names), 2002 letter to Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien (30 names), 2003 letter to Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin (46 names), 2006 letter to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper (61 names), 2007 letter to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon (100 names), 2007 TV film The Great Global Warming Swindle interviewees (17 names), NIPCC: 2008 Heartland Institute document “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate,” ed. S. Fred Singer (24 listed contributors), 2008 Manhattan Declaration from a conference in New York City (206 names listed as qualified experts), 2009 newspaper ad by the Cato Institute challenging President Obama’s stance on climate change (115 signers), 2009 Heartland Institute document “Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)” (36 authors), and 2009 letter to the American Physical Society (61 names).

1. There are 4,000 signatories to the 1992 statement from the Science and Environmental Policy Project. Why did Anderegg, Prall et al limit themselves to just 46 names from this list? Is it perhaps because they didn’t want to include any of the 73 Nobel Prize winners in their list of ‘deniers?’ James Prall runs a weblog that has pictures of those he has labeled climate deniers. For some reason I can’t find pictures of many of those who signed the 1992 statement, including Jonas Salk, Rita Levi-Montalcino, Elie Wiesel, Norman Borlaug, Linus Pauling, etc.

But what were 73 Nobel Prize winners doing signing a ‘denialist’ letter? Were they fooled, scammed, drugged into submission?

Read it yourself–maybe you’ll discover you’re a climate ‘denier’ too! I would have signed this in 1992 and I would sign it today. And I’m not even a skeptic, let alone denier…

“We want to make our full contribution to the preservation of our common heritage, the Earth. We are, however, worried at the dawn of the twenty-first century, at the emergence of an irrational ideology which is opposed to scientific and industrial progress and impedes economic and social development.

We contend that a Natural State, sometimes idealized by movements with a tendency to look toward the past, does not exist and has probably never existed since man’s first appearance in the biosphere, insofar as humanity has always progressed by increasingly harnessing Nature to its needs and not the reverse.

We fully subscribe to the objectives of a scientific ecology for a universe whose resources must be taken stock of, monitored and preserved. But we herewith demand that this stock-taking, monitoring and preservation be founded on scientific criteria and not on irrational preconceptions.

We stress that many essential human activities are carried out either by manipulating hazardous substances or in their proximity, and that progress and development have always involved increasing control over hostile forces, to the benefit of mankind. We therefore consider that scientific ecology is no more than extension of this continual progress toward the improved life of future generations.

We intend to assert science’s responsibility and duties toward society as a whole.
We do, however, forewarn the authorities in charge of our planet’s destiny against decisions which are supported by pseudoscientific arguments or false and nonrelevant data. We draw everybody’s attention to the absolute necessity of helping poor countries attain a level of sustainable development which matches that of the rest of the planet, protecting them from troubles and dangers stemming from developed nations, and avoiding their entanglement in a web of unrealistic obligations which would compromise both their independence and their dignity.

The greatest evils which stalk our Earth are ignorance and oppression, and not Science, Technology, and Industry, whose instruments, when adequately managed, are indispensable tools of a future shaped by Humanity, by itself and for itself, overcoming major problems like overpopulation, starvation and worldwide diseases.”
Here are some of the signatories. These are the men and women who are less expert and have less prominence than Michael Mann, Peter Gleick and Stephan Lewandowsky:

*Denotes Nobel Prize Winner

• Bruce N. Ames, Director, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Center, BerkeleyBiochemistry-U.S.A.

• * Phillip W. Anderson, Nobel Prize (Physics), Princeton University-Physics-U.S.A.

• * Christian B. Anfinsen, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), John Hopkins University-Baltimore-Biology-U.S.A.

• Henri Atlan, Professor, Head of Nuclear Medicine Department, Hotel Dieu, Paris-Nuclear Medicine France

• * Julius Axelrod, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Lab. Of Cell Biology Nat. Institute of Mental Health-Cell Biology-U.S.A.

• Aden Bauleiu-Inserm, Ac. of Sciences, France, National Institute of Sciences, U.S.A. Lasker PrizeEndocrinology-France

• * Baruj Benacerraf, Nobel Prize (Medicine), National Medal of Science, President, Dana-Farber, Inc.-Oncology-U.S.A.

• * Hans Albrecht Bethe, Nobel Prize (Physics), Emeritus Professor, Cornell University-Ithaca-NY Nuclear Physics-U.S.A.

• *Sir James W. Black, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor Of Analytical Pharmacology King’s College, London- Pharmacology-Grande-Bretagne

• * Nicholas Bloembergen, Nobel Prize (Physics), Harvard University-Physics-U.S.A.

• Sir Hermann Bondi, Emeritus Professor Of Mathematics King’s College University Master of Churchill College Cambridge-Mathematics-Grande-Bretagne

• * Norman E, Borlaug, Nobel Prize (Peace), Sc. Consult CAMWOOD, Mexico Pdt. Sasakawa African Assoc.-Agriculture-U.S.A.

• Pierre Bourdieu, College de France-Sociology-France

• * Adolph Butenandt, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Hon. Pres. Max-Planck Institute-Chemistry-Allemagne

• * Thomas R. Cech, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), University of Colorado-Chemistry-U.S.A.

• Carlos Chagas, Academia Pontificia, WIS-Medicine-Brazil

• * Owen Chamberlain, Professor, Nobel Prize (Physics), Emeritus Professor, University Of California Berkeley-U.S.A.

• * Stanley Cohen, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Distinguished Professor, Department of Biochem., Vanderbilt University-Biochemistry-U.S.A.

• *Sir John Warcup Cornforth, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), School of Chemistry and Molecular Sciences, Brighton-Chemistry-Grande-Bretagne

• * Jean Dausset, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Ac. of Sciences, France, Pres. U.M.S.E., W.I.S., ParisImmunology-France

• * Gerald Debreu, Nobel Prize (Economy), Emeritus Professor of Economics and Mathematics, University Of California-Economy-U.S.A.

• * Johan Deisenhofer, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), University of Texas, Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas-Biochemistry-U.S.A.

• Sir Richard Doll, Emeritus Professor Of Medicine, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford-Epidemiology-GrandeBretagne

• * Christian de Duve, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Biology-Belgique

• * Manfred Eigen, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), President of Max Plank Institute, Gottingen-ChemistryAllemagne

• * Richard R. Ernst, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich-ChemistrySuisse

• * Pierre-Gilles de Gennes, Nobel Prize (Physics), Ac. of Sciences, Professor, College de France, Paris-Physics-France

• * Ivar Giaever, Nobel Prize (Physics), Institute Professor, R.P.I.-Physics-U.S.A.

• * Donald A. Glaser, Nobel Prize (Physics), Professor of Physics, University of California-Physics U.S.A.

• Francois Gros, Professor, College de France, Ac of Sciences, France, Vice President of WIS, Paris -Biology of development-France

• * Roger Guillemin, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Whittier Institute, La Jolla-Medicine-U.S.A.

• * Herbert A. Hauptman, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Pres. Med. Found. of Buffalo, Professor of Biophysics Sc-Biophysics-U.S.A.

• Harald zur Hausen, Professor, Dr., Director of German Cancer Research Center, HeidelbergCancerology-Allemagne

• Mrs. Francoise Heritier-Auge, Professor, College de France, Pres Cons Nat. Sida Dir, EhessAnthropology-France

• * Dudley R. Herschbach, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Baird Professor Of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge-Chemistry-U.S.A.

• * Gerhard Herzberg, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), National Research Council of Canada, Chemistry – Canada

• Benno Hess, Professor, Doctor, Honorary Senator and Former Vice President, Max-Planck Society , WIS – Biophysics-Allemagne

• * Anthony Jewish, Nobel Prize (Physics), Professor, Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge University Physics – Grande-Bretagne

• * Roald Hoffman, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Professor Of Chemistry, Cornell University-Chemistry U.S.A.

• * Robert Huber, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Max-Planck Institute for Biochemie, Biochemistry-Allemagne

• *Sir Andrew Fielding Huxley, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Formerly President of London, Medicine-GrandeBretagne

• Serguei Petrovich Kapitza, Professor of Sciences, Institute for Physical Problems, WIS-Physics, electrodynamics-Russie

• * Jerome Karle, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Chief Scientist, Lab for Structure of Matter, Chemistry-U.S.A.

• *Sir John Kendrew, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Professor, The Old Guildhall, Cambridge, Molecular Biology-Grande-Bretagne

• * Klaus Von Klitzing, Nobel Prize (Physics), Professor, Max-Planck Inst. Solid State Research, Stuttgart-Physics-Allemagne

• * Aaron Klug, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), M.R.C. Lab. of Molecular Biology, Cambridge-ChemistryGrande-Bretagne

• * Edwin G. Krebs, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor Emeritus, Department of Pharm & Biochem, University of Washington-Biochemistry-U.S.A.

• * Leon Lederman, Nobel Prize (Physics), Director Emeritus, Fermi Nat’l Accelerator Laboratory, Nuclear Physics-U.S.A.

• * Yuan T. Lee, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Professor of Chemistry, University of California-Berkeley U.S.A.

• * Jean-Marie Lehn, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Professor, College de France, W.I.S. Chemistry-France

• Pierre Lelong, Professor, Ac of Sciences, W.I.S.-Mathematics-France

• * Wassily Leontief, Nobel Prize (Economy), Professor, New York University-Economy-U.S.A.

• * Rita Levi-Montalcini, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Ac Lincei, Ac Pontificia, W.I.S.-Neurosciences-Italie

• Andr Linchnerowicz, Professor, Ac of Sciences France, Ac Lincei, Ac Pontificia, President of W.I.S., Mathematical Physics-France

*Sir. Nevil F. Mott, Nobel Prize Winner (Physics), Emeritus Professor, Cambridge University, PhysicsGrande-Bretagne

• * Joseph Murray, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, Dr Surgery, Harvard Med School-Cell Biology U.S.A.

• * Daniel Nathans, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, John Hopkins Un, School of Medicine, Baltimore Molecular Genetics-U.S.A.

• Daniel W. Nebert, Professor, Director, Center for Environmental Genetics, University of Cincinnati, Genetics-U.S.A.

• * Louis Neel, Nobel Prize (Physics), Physics-France

• * Erwin Neher, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Doctor, Director, Max-Planck Institute, Biophysics, GoettingenBiophysics-Allemagne

• * Marshall W. Nirenberg, Nobel Prize (Medicine), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda-Medicine U.S.A.

• * George E. Palade, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, Division of Cellular & Molecular Med, Cell Medicine-U.S.A.

• * Linus Pauling, Nobel Prize (Chemistry, Peace), Professor, Linus Pauling Institute Sc and Med, Chemistry-U.S.A.

• Jean-Claude Pecker, Professor Hon, College de France, Ac of Sciences, Royal Ac of Belgium, W.I.S.- Astrophysics-France

• * Amo A. Penzias, Nobel Prize (Physics), Professor, Bell Labortories, Murray Hill-Physics-U.S.A.

• * Max Ferdinand Perutz, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, CambridgeBiochemistry-Grande-Bretagne

• Julian Peto, Professor, Head , Section of Epidemiology, Institute of Cancer Research, LondonEpidemiology-Grande-Bretagne

• Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics & Epidemiology, University of Oxford-EpidemiologyGrande-Bretagne

• * John Charles Polanyi, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Professor Of Chemistry, University of TorontoChemistry-Canada

• *Lord George Porter, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Professor, Chairman, Photomolec, Sc  Imperial College, London-Chemistry-Grande-Bretagne

• Andr Linchnerowicz, Professor, Ac of Sciences France, Ac Lincei, Ac Pontificia, President of W.I.S., Mathematical Physics-France

• Richard S. Lindzen, Professor, US National Academy of Sciences, M.I.T., W.I.S.-Meteorology-U.S.A.

• * William N. Lipscomb, Nobel Prize Winner (Chemistry), Professor Emeritus, Harvard University, Cambridge-Chemistry-U.S.A.

• * Harry M. Markowitz, Nobel Prize (Economics), Speizer Professor of Finance, Baruch College-U.S.A.

• * Simon van der Meer, Nobel Prize (Physics), Geneva-Nuclear Physics-Suisse

• * Cesar Milstein, Nobel Prize (Physiology), Dr Cambridge-Physiology-Grande-Bretagne

• *Sir. Nevil F. Mott, Nobel Prize Winner (Physics), Emeritus Professor, Cambridge University, PhysicsGrande-Bretagne

• * Joseph Murray, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, Dr Surgery, Harvard Med School-Cell BiologyU.S.A.

• * Daniel Nathans, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, John Hopkins Un, School of Medicine,  Baltimore Molecular Genetics-U.S.A.

• Daniel W. Nebert, Professor, Director, Center for Environmental Genetics, University of Cincinnati, Genetics-U.S.A.
• * Louis Neel, Nobel Prize (Physics), Physics-France
• * Erwin Neher, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Doctor, Director, Max-Planck Institute, Biophysics, GoettingenBiophysics-Allemagne

• * Marshall W. Nirenberg, Nobel Prize (Medicine), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda-MedicineU.S.A.

• * George E. Palade, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, Division of Cellular & Molecular Med, Cell Medicine-U.S.A.

• * Linus Pauling, Nobel Prize (Chemistry, Peace), Professor, Linus Pauling Institute Sc and Med, Chemistry-U.S.A.

• Jean-Claude Pecker, Professor Hon, College de France, Ac of Sciences, Royal Ac of Belgium, W.I.S.- Astrophysics-France

• * Amo A. Penzias, Nobel Prize (Physics), Professor, Bell Labortories, Murray Hill-Physics-U.S.A.

• * Max Ferdinand Perutz, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, CambridgeBiochemistry-Grande-Bretagne

• Julian Peto, Professor, Head , Section of Epidemiology, Institute of Cancer Research, LondonEpidemiology-Grande-Bretagne

• Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics & Epidemiology, University of Oxford-EpidemiologyGrande-Bretagne

• * John Charles Polanyi, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Professor Of Chemistry, University of TorontoChemistry-Canada

• * I. Prigogine, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Professor, Director, Institute Intern. de Phys. et de Chim, Bruxelles-Chemistry-Belgique

• A. Prochiantz, Pr, Director of Research CNRS, Ecole Normale Suprieure, Paris, W.I.S.-Pharmacology France

• Ichtiaque Rasool, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena-Physics-France
• * Tadeus Reichstein, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor Emeritus, Org Chemistry, University of BaselOrganic Chemistry-Suisse

• * Heinrich Rohrer, Nobel Prize (Physics), IBM Research Laboratory, Physics-Suisse

• * Bert Sakmann, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, Max-Planck Inst for Med. Forschung, Heidelberg Cell Biology-Allemagne

• * Abdus Salam, Nobel Prize (Physics), International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italie

• Jonas Salk, Distinguished Pr., Dr , International Health Sciences-Biology-USA

• Evry Schatzman, Professor, Ac of Sciences-France-Astrophysics-France

• * Arthur L. Schawlow, Nobel Prize (Physics), Stanford University-Physics-U.S.A.

• G. Schettler, Professor, Director, Former President, Academy of Sciences, Heidelberg-CardiologyAllemagne

• Elie A. Shneour, Professor, Director, Biosystems Research Institute, San Diego, California-U.S.A.

• * Kai Siegbahn, Nobel Prize (Physics), Physics-Suede

• S. Fred Singer, Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Director of the Washington S.E.P.P, EnvironmentalSciences-U.S.A.

• * Richard Laurence Millington Synge, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Biochemistry-Grande-Bretagne

• GP Talwar, Professor Emeritus, Nat Inst of Immunology, Ac of Sciences, India, W.I.S.-Immunology Inde

• * Jan Tinbergen, Nobel Prize (Economy), Economy-Pays-Bas

• *Lord Alexander Todd, Nobel Prize (Chemistry), Chemistry-Grande-Bretagne

• Alvin Toffler, Author-Futurist-Futurology-U.S.A.

• * Charles H. Townes, Nobel Prize (Physics), W.I.S. Professor Emeritus, Physics, University of California, Berkeley-Physics-U.S.A.

• Ren Truhaut, Professor, Pharmacology Facult des Sciences, Pharmaceutiques, Paris-Toxicology France

• *Sir John R. Vane , Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, Chairman of William Harvey Research Institute, London-Endocrinology-Grande-Bretagne

• * Harold E. Varmus, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor of Microbiology, University of California, San Francisco-Microbiology-U.S.A.

• * Thomas Huckle Weller, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor Emeritus, Harvard-Medicine-U.S.A.

• * Elie Wiesel, Nobel Prize (Peace), University of Boston Literature-U.S.A.

• * Torsten N. Wiesel, Nobel Prize (Medicine), Professor, Lab of Neurobiology, Rockefeller University of New York, Neurobiology-U.S.A.

• * Robert W. Wilson, Nobel Prize (Physics), Head, Radio Physics Res Department, AT&T Bell Laboratories-Physics-U.S.A.

More on this in the next post–“You’re a denier if you signed a letter I haven’t read…”

12 responses to “The Tragedy of Anderegg, Prall et al PNAS 2010

  1. Tom — You’re doing a real service by exposing the shortcomings of this paper and papers like it. One of many weaknesses is the vague definition of what statement the majority of scientists supposedly agreed on. The abstract says they “support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” Which tenets? Presumably the most recent IPCC, which may have been the 3rd or 4th. The fifth IPCC report wasn’t written when this survey was taken. So, a precise reading would be that the article does NOT imply that all these scientists support the 5th IPCC report, which doesn’t always agree with the 3rd and 4th..

    Of course, these results aren’t presented that way. They’re not meant to be scientific or precise. They’re really just a form of propaganda.

  2. Keith Kloor did a recent article on a battle inside of ecology. There a sect inside of environmental science that treats nature a little bit too religiously. The appeal to nature group. Apparently there is some push back against this group now. it also discusses the confirmation bias in journals (which I think is rampant in environmentalism).

    http://issues.org/31-2/kloor/

  3. Tom, I looked at Prall’s list. I know 14 of them personally. I respect all of them. The one who surprised me most was Michael Garstang. He was advocating man made climate change in the 60’s and had the data to back it up.. He had a model where land use changes would cause wind patterns to change warming the Arctic but not the Antarctic. (I’m simplifying) His predictions were actually pretty close to what happened.
    My point is that the real target of people like Prall, are those with theories of man made climate change that don’t demonize CO2. The ones that don’t create an excuse for nukes and fracked gas.

  4. On lists: I am not on Prall’s list but I am on Greenpeace’s list, Exxon Secrets. I am also on a list of closet Creationists, . I have been out of work several times and looking for a job, and believe me, these lists matter.

    I am going to start making a list of alarmists that received money from nuclear or fracking groups.
    Al Gore
    Naomi Oreskes
    Newt Gingrich
    John McCain
    Richard Muller
    George Monbiot
    Jeffrey Sachs
    Obama
    John Kerry
    Jim Hansen

    • I went through Prall’s list again. I have talked politics with 7 people on the list. One was far to the right. The rest I would put moderate left to extreme left. This left /right dichotomy in CAGW is like the left/right dichotomy in gun control, you only find it among the professional pundits and politicians.

  5. Great article.
    Do you read Ben Pyle’s “Climate Resistance” blog? If not you should. He covers similar topics in ways I believe you would find very interesting.
    In its extreme form climate obsession behavior is at least as nasty as any religious or political fanatic one can name. The reliance of the cliamte extremists on the term “denier” is no different in tone or intent than the old racist term, “ni**er”: Its is designed to dehumanize the one being so named, It is designed to enforce a hierarchy (under control of the bigot) where the name caller can marginalize anything their victim might say. It is designed to allow the bigot to avoid being asked uncomfortable questions. It is hope by the climate obsessed to make certain that they maintain control of their precious narrative.
    Frankly I am wondering if any movement that relies on narrative control for its social status is immune to this. But that is just wool gathering….

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