Reuters writes, “Global sea levels climbed 3 inches since 1992, NASA research shows.” That’s less than one inch every 8 years. If it continues at that pace we will see 1 foot of sea level rise this century.
It doesn’t change the shape of this chart:
Although recent performance is easier to see here:
Those charts don’t seem like cause for much in the way of worry.
However, climate scientists are saying that sea level rise is not necessarily linear. I believe them. The Konsensus Krazies didn’t help the level of discussion by saying that the Greenland Ice Cap could melt and that we should actually be concerned by it.
The Greenland Ice Cap may melt, although it didn’t during previous warm periods that were warmer than today. If it does melt, it will take 3,000 years to get halfway finished.
The same is true of the incredibly huge Eastern Antarctic Ice Cap. Same panic stories, same exaggeration, even longer length of time involved.
So now we are told we must beware the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet. This in fact is being tortured by mechanical stress, reported in the 1920s. But climate scientists worry that warm water at the base of it may accelerate its disintegration. And the Konsensus Krazies seize on that as another reason to panic.
Global warming may accelerate the disintegration of the WAIS. It may happen 20 or 30 years sooner than would otherwise have been the case. But it still is estimated to require about 200 years or more.
The IPCC gives a range of between 0.26 meters and 0.98 meters over the course of the century. The lower figure is actually below current rates of sea level rise. The higher figure is based on RCP 8.5, which is not actually a scenario based on examination of the real world, but a postulated forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter with a brief look at what could in theory cause it.
The IPCC adds, ” We have considered the evidence for higher projections and have concluded that there is currently insufficient evidence to evaluate the probability of specific levels above the assessed likely range. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. This potential additional contribution cannot be precisely quantified but there is medium confidence that it would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during the 21st century.”
We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.