Climate Doom, Defeat and Despair–Oh My

The Nation’s headline is pretty stark: “The Future of Climate Change is Widespread Civil War.”

A failure to cap carbon emissions guarantees another result as well, though one far less discussed. It will, in the long run, bring on not just climate shocks, but also worldwide instability, insurrection, and warfare.

…” The IPCC report, however, suggested that global warming would have devastating impacts of a social and political nature as well, including economic decline, state collapse, civil strife, mass migrations, and sooner or later resource wars.

Armed conflict may not be the most immediate consequence of these developments, the IPCC notes, but combine the effects of climate change with already existing poverty, hunger, resource scarcity, incompetent and corrupt governance, and ethnic, religious, or national resentments, and you’re likely to end up with bitter conflicts over access to food, water, land, and other necessities of life.”

There’s only one problem with this–it doesn’t seem to be happening. We’re setting temperature records now and 14 of the 15 warmest years in recorded history have happened this century. But what has happened in terms of both interstate and intrastate conflict?

Conflicts by type

Despite severe droughts, neither Texas nor California have seceded from the Union or declared war on Mexico–or each other. Despite a three-year period of alarming rises in food prices, nations across the world did not dissolve in internal conflicts over food shortages (despite what some claim about Egypt’s hamfisted efforts during the Arab Spring, they were actually getting more food than before).

The story makes much of the Syrian drought, which has been disputed in the academic literature and from commentators inside the country and region. And on this blog as well.

Global warming is predicted to increase precipitation globally by 5%. Of course water wars could still break out–but having more rain doesn’t seem guaranteed to make it happen. Writing as if it is guaranteed doesn’t make sense.

Global warming is expected to cost between 1% and 5% of global GDP. We lost more than that during the 2008 recession–and the world is still standing.

So far, the period of global warming has increased vegetative cover and agricultural production dramatically, with much of the increase in fact due to increased CO2.

food

And fewer wars, civil and between nations. We may be living in the most peaceful period in history.

So, peace, Nation. Maybe the modest global warming that we are certain to see will have us all singing Kumbaya.

s325_give_peace_a_chance_john_lennon_sticker

6 responses to “Climate Doom, Defeat and Despair–Oh My

  1. Tom,
    “Climate change” is the ultimate “the dog ate my homework” excuse for our lazy. corrupt, politically correct style of leaders.

  2. I agree with Hunter, in the sense that humanity’s future may be grim due to issues such as overpopulation, resource depletion, and enviromental damage.

    By the way, I found an old document I wrote about Kosovo in 1999. I had the darned thing in Spanish, translated it, and I’m editing it to post. It’s very controversial but it was well researched. In those days I had very good contacts in Russia, some of what I read was written using their sources and points of view. I was also influenced by Pat Buchanan, Noam Chomsky, and Ramsey Clark.

  3. As I mentioned recently, several years ago a paper attributed African civil war to climate change, on rather flimsy grounds, predicting a sharp increase in the near future.

    As with extreme weather events, I expect that most every conflict will be trumpeted by some as a consequence of AGW. Once that gets old, it will morph into something like, “While it’s impossible to ascribe climate change definitively as the cause of any specific conflict, it is loading the dice in favor of war.” Anything to associate climate change with unhappy events. It’s rather like advertising in that regard — build up an unconscious association, in this case negative rather than positive.

  4. what about the stresses o countries that are dependent on oil income?

  5. The New York witch hunt against Exxon for its part in the great ‘climate change’ ‘conspiracy’ is either close to the self immolation of the social mania or it is the start of a dark age.
    I am cautiously optimistic.

  6. Pingback: Climate Change Predictions 2030 | The Lukewarmer's Way

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