It’s Getting Warmer

As 2015 draws to a close bloggers will all be trying to put their stamp on the year. And Then There’s Physics leads off, calling 2015 the hottest year in the temperature record, breaking the brief record set by 2014. He’s right. He also cites the UK Met Office as predicting that 2016 will be hotter still. He’s taking a chance… they haven’t been too fortunate with their recent predictions.

If you’re younger than 30, you’ve never experienced a month in which the average surface temperature of the Earth was below average. (I wonder if I have any readers younger than 30. Heck, I wonder if I have any readers younger than 40.)

30yearsofabo

It doesn’t rise to the level of alarmist propaganda to be aware of this. And I’m not suggesting that alarm is the proper response. However, to ignore a 30-year unbroken trend of warmer than average temperatures is foolish. It means something.

This does not mean there was no ‘pause.’ James Hansen rightly noted the ‘stalled temperatures’ that lasted at least a decade and the fight over its existence is as silly as ignoring the fact that temperatures have been quite high for quite a long period.

It is now probably as warm as during the peak of the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from 950-1250 A.D., another phenomenon alarmists want to airbrush out of existence.

Those of us who agree with the small ‘c’ consensus but agitate against adoption of the capital ‘K’ Konsensus (the lobbyists and marketers of NGOs trying to inspire panic about climate change) do ourselves no favors when we ignore the current warming period. It is real.

Impacts of this warming have been negligible. Arctic ice is melting and some strange storms and weather patterns in that part of the world are really interesting. However, the rest of the world has not yet paid a price for this warming. Storms are not yet more frequent or more intense. Sea level rise has not accelerated. Neither drought nor heatwaves have occurred more often or more strongly.

It’s getting warmer. But so far, that’s all that’s happened. It’s just… getting warmer.

I accept that should the warming continue at some point our luck will run out and that indeed storms will become more frequent and more intense, that sea level rise will indeed accelerate, that droughts and heatwaves will become worse.

And I also accept that our emissions of greenhouse gases, alongside our cutting down of forests, conversion of land to agriculture and our emissions of black soot, are contributing significantly to the warming we both see now and expect from the future. Kind of like the IPCC does.

This is a grace period, where the very real warming is doing not much more than greening the planet. I hope we take every advantage of it.

mose4

21 responses to “It’s Getting Warmer

  1. “Grace” from what- nicer weather?
    That temperature graph is so deceptive as to be annoying.

  2. “I accept that should the warming continue at some point our luck will run out and that indeed storms will become more frequent and more intense, that sea level rise will indeed accelerate, that droughts and heatwaves will become worse.”

    Apart from sea level rise, is any of this based on solid fact rather than the same kind of armwaving conjecture that insists that 1C of CO2 warming conjures up a further 2C of extra warming? It’s kind of a stretch for me to believe that change only brings more of the same for something as complicated as the climate. Maybe they’ll be more floods and less droughts, maybe the reverse maybe some places will get more storms and others will get less, but more of everything? Sounds like konsensus talk to me.

    • Not even sea level rise is based on more than arm waving
      Tom has fallen for the future tipping point scam. It’s up there with the hidden heat hoax and the Earth becomes Venus delusion. All are scary stories about future events that are always just over the horizon.

      • Hiya hunter, and Happy New Year!

        Riddle me this. Forget about human contributions–pretend they’re zero. If the temperature keeps rising, what do you think will happen? At 1C, 2C, 3C, etc. 10C?

      • Good question. We are up about ~1o, and what has happened?
        Nothing much.
        Except the world is greener and fewer people are dying in floods, storms, etc.

      • I agree. At what point do we start pushing our luck?

      • Tom, good question. We are always pushing our luck as a species and as a culture. Your list of temperature choices was , I hope, facetious. The chances of a 10 o response to the CO2 we are emitting is nil. The temps the world is experiencing are clearly not dangerous. They are also less than what we have experienced in the past. In ages of rational thought those periods were called names like “optimum”. I wonder why?

    • Maybe we aren’t pushing our luck at all. Maybe we’re doing the planet a huge favour.

  3. Probably as warm as the Medieval Warm period, is Greenland green, are the Danes raising livestock on those coastal grasslands again?

    You have been taken in by misleading graphs like that NOAA anomaly that successfully hides both the high peak in the 1930’s and the almost imperceptible rise/fall for nearly the last 20 years. More accurately that “continuous” rise only lasted as long as the now longer pause/hiatus kicked in.

  4. Look anyone with ANY intelligence knows that the surface temperature is totally fabricated from warming adjustments. So please, these claims about “hottest evah” are all just hot air.

    Let’s stop this hilarious charade with surface data and start talking about the only really global and scientific measurements of global temperature from the satellites.

  5. Miscellaneous comments:

    1. I’m having a slight problem accepting the current surface temperature record as reported by NOAA. It deviates too much from the satellite record. Unless I see a detailed analysis I can believe regarding this problem, I’ll consider the data to be fuzzy.

    2. I used to work in Arctic projects, mostly in Russia. This gave me the ability to look at gobs of data. It seems to me the current Arctic trend is very complex, and we are seeing a significant change in the Beaufort and Kara seas. But the ice elsewhere seems to be behaving quite well, and I get a sense they are getting much more snow. This tells me the story isn’t really being told right, there’s too much propaganda.

    3. Finished “Lukewarmer’s Way”, it was pretty good, but I do disagree with the assumption that fossil fuel resources are plentiful. I keep seeing data which tells me we are running out in a hurry. We do need to build more nuclear power stations.

    • The current NOAA record deviates too far from the historical record, much less the satellite record.

    • Fernando,

      “I’m having a slight problem accepting the current surface temperature record as reported by NOAA. It deviates too much from the satellite record. Unless I see a detailed analysis I can believe regarding this problem”.

      Why is there a problem? The satellite temperature is not surface temperature (it is an integral of weighted vertical temperatures), so there is no reason for them to be the same. A careful analysis should make it possible to reconcile the two, but I have not seen it done. Is there such an analysis and does it show that the two data sets are irreconcilable?

  6. I still think that the NOAA temperature is influeced by extrapolating temperatures to the north pole where no thermometers are recording. Also it measures sea water temperature and not air above sea temperature. There are no measurements above ice, it is all infill.

    But still: this warming is beneficial, an inconvenient truth that the alarmists don’t want to hear.

  7. By the way, This morning I added the REMSS temperature anomaly to my blog. To see it you just have to touch rocky the squirrel. That plot is what makes me think something just doesn’t seem to add up. However, I need a completely 100 % equivalent surface anomaly plot, so this topic is still unresolved.

  8. Some convincing evidence that Arctic Sea Ice is a self-oscillating system.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/arctic-sea-ice-self-oscillating-system/

    • Ron,
      In an era of more rational critical thinking and less reactionary fear the very strong historical evidence of a highly dynamic Arctic sea ice system would be more than enough to silence the cliamte hypesters.

  9. to ignore a 30-year unbroken trend of warmer than average temperatures is foolish

    Please, based on what you call the trend “unbroken”? As said, the trends before 1940 and before 2000 are not dissimilar. I don’t like the pause/hiatus discussion, where misleading statistical arguments are used to push a view, but surely the trend, if anything, is ‘broken’ rather than ‘unbroken’.

  10. The average of averages graph from NOAA that you show is a real dumbed down plot, especially if it is aimed at convincing people there is a problem. Have all the temperatures everywhere risen, or is it just night time minimums in the northern hemisphere high latitudes? Having daytime summer maximums a lot hotter would be of a lot more concern than winter night minimums going up by the same amount. As others like Wert have noted, there is a lot of unexplained detail in the graph. At least we can be “grateful” that it wasn’t started at 1950 like they normally do.

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