Regular readers will know that I eagerly await the publication of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration’s bi-annual report titled ‘International Energy Outlook.’
They’re almost a year late. They were supposed to publish in Spring of 2015 and the EIA website now says it will be in February 2016. One of their staff told me a couple of months ago that it would be January because they were having some problems with their model.
The reason it’s important to me is that I used their figures for my baseline projection of energy consumption going forward. As my figures are much higher than theirs–heck, my figures are much higher than everybody’s–I pore over energy consumption projections avidly. A handful of them come out every year, such as BP and the International Energy Agency, but I like the DOE’s, even if I don’t agree with their totals.
For non-regular readers, I spent over a year analyzing global energy consumption trends at my other blog (3000 Quads) and came to the conclusion that we would consume almost twice as much in 2030 as we did in 2010 and an incredible six times as much by 2075. That’s what happens when developing countries develop.
Where the EIA estimated that the developing world would increase their consumption by 2.4% per year, I estimate that the developing world will increase consumption by 4.19% per year. That explains all the difference between their totals and mine.
Which is why I’m getting itchy to see their reported consumption for the last couple of years.